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The Quiet Dominance of Steve Smith
The Carolina Panthers on Thursday released Steve Smith, the franchise’s all-time leading receiver, and he was snapped up Friday by the Baltimore Ravens — so it’s a good time to take stock of his...
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2014 NFL Preview: Can Cam Newton Overtake Rob Ryan In The NFC South?
FiveThirtyEight is running a series of eight NFL previews, one division at a time, to highlight the numbers that may influence each team’s season. America’s favorite weekly soap opera is about to...
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NFL Week 2 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds
It’s a cliche: Every game counts in a league that plays just 16 of them. But Benjamin Morris’s findings in his debut Skeptical Football column were nevertheless striking: A Week 1 or Week 2 game can...
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NFL Week 3 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds
It’s been hard for me to escape the feeling that something’s off about NFL games this year. But that may be the league’s off-field problems coloring my perception of the on-field play — or the...
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NFL Week 5 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds
The perception after the NFL’s fourth week of play is that parity reigns supreme. Only two teams, the Arizona Cardinals and Cincinnati Bengals, remain undefeated — and they’re both 3-0 rather than 4-0,...
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NFL Week 8 Playoff Implications: If The Seahawks Lose, The NFC Gains
NFL Playoff Implications, our weekly guide to what games matter, and whom they matter to, returns for Week 8 of the NFL season. For an explanation of the methodology, see here. The rankings behind...
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NFL Week 9 Playoff Implications: A Crucial Week For The Saints And Panthers
NFL Playoff Implications, our weekly guide to what games matter, and whom they matter to, returns for Week 9 of the NFL season. For an explanation of the methodology, see here. The rankings behind...
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Week 15 NFL Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds
Remember the Seattle Seahawks? For all 137.6 decibels of noise at CenturyLink Field, they’ve been relatively quiet this year. The Seahawks have been one of the most consistent teams in the NFL, rarely...
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NFL Week 17 Playoff Implications: Someone Has To Win The NFC South
With just one week remaining in the NFL regular season, the playoff implications are fairly straightforward, and running thousands of simulations of Week 17 outcomes may seem like computational...
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Week 17 NFL Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds: Special Seahawks Edition
The Seattle Seahawks began the season ranked No. 1 in FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Elo ratings. After flirting with the top position for the past two weeks, they reclaimed it on Sunday after crushing the...
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Week 18 NFL Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds: Wild Card Edition
With the NFL’s regular season concluding last Sunday, our Elo ratings have, in some ways, completed their broadest purpose: to track the league’s horse race by providing a weekly top-to-bottom ranking...
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How Much Did Having Ryan Lindley At QB Cost The Arizona Cardinals?
The Arizona Cardinals won 11 games this year — the long-suffering franchise’s highest single-season win total since 1975. But Arizona went 2-4 down the stretch of the regular season, then were handled...
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Week 19 NFL Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds: Divisional Round Edition
One blind spot of the analytics movement has been its underappreciation of postseason play. I don’t necessarily mean that “COUNT THE RINGZ” is a better paradigm. But there are all sorts of interesting...
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2015 NFL Preview: How The Salary Cap Is Shaping The Falcons, Saints, Panthers...
In preparation for the 2015 NFL season, FiveThirtyEight is running a series of eight division previews, each highlighting the numbers that may influence a team’s performance (including projections and...
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What Explains The Carolina Panthers’ Rise?
When the Denver Broncos fell to the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, just three teams remained undefeated in the 2015 NFL season: the New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals and Carolina Panthers.For the...
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The Panthers Are The Worst Team To Ever Start 11-0
In the aftermath of C.J. Anderson’s 48-yard overtime touchdown — which unceremoniously ended the Patriots’ undefeated season — just one NFL team remains perfect: the Carolina Panthers. Unlike New...
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How Did Little Leicester City Rise To The Top Of The Premier League?
http://c.espnradio.com/s:5L8r1/audio/2629057/hottakedown_2015-12-08-182957.64k.mp3?ad_params=zones%3DPreroll%2CPreroll2%2CMidroll%2CMidroll2%2CMidroll3%2CMidroll4%2CMidroll5%2CMidroll6%2CPostroll%2CPos...
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The Panthers Have A Good Shot At 16-0, Even If They Rest Their Starters
Last time we checked in with the Carolina Panthers, we declared them the worst team ever to start a season 11-0. At the time, this was due primarily to a scoring margin and passing attack that didn’t...
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This Might Be The NFL’s Best Defensive Final Four Ever
After an upside-down wild card round that produced four road winners, sanity was restored for the higher-seeded teams during divisional weekend. It wasn’t always easy — each game was decided by a...
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The Panthers’ First-Half Blowouts Are Unprecedented
Along their path to Super Bowl 50, the Carolina Panthers have been absolutely laying waste to opponents early in games. After a quarter against the Seattle Seahawks, they were up 14-0; at halftime they...
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